MFC 35 Predictions- Part 2

Posted on Wednesday, October 24th, 2012 at 6:13 pm

MFC 35 Predictions Part 2

As part of the exciting lead-up to Maximum Fighting Championship events,  the Z-Files reaches out to mixed martial arts insiders – fighters, trainers and respected media members – for their fearless predictions on the key fights.

With MFC 35: Explosive Encounter on the horizon, it’s time to take a peek at some more prognostications.

For this second instalment it’s time to get some perspective on a top contender matchup in the featherweight division Canadian up-and-comer Graham Spencer meets Hawaiian sensation “Sugar” Shane Nelson.

Spencer (8-1, 1 NC) – making organizational debut riding a three-fight winning streak … four career wins by way of submission … notable career victories over Mukai Maromo and Shawn Albrecht

Nelson (15-6) – past reality show standout fighting for first time in MFC … former lightweight making move down to 145-pound division … four wins by way of knockout and four via submission … resume-building wins over Aaron Riley, George Roop, and Kolo Koka


“Nelson is a native of Hawaii and trains alongside former two-division UFC champion BJ Penn. After securing a spot on the seventh season of ‘The Ultimate Fighter,’ Nelson lost in the second round to eventual lightweight winner Efrain Escudero. He would win his first two UFC bouts against Aaron Riley and George Roop before losing a rematch to Riley and then losing by decision to Matt Wiman. The UFC released him after that fight and after taking more than a year off, Nelson has won three of his last four fights. Spencer is 8-1 and holds a victory over current MFC lightweight contender Mukai Maromo. He has spent some time training with Urijah Faber and Team Alpha Male in preparation for this match-up with Nelson. After submitting his first three opponents, Spencer has just one finish in his last five wins. The Canadian born Spencer doesn’t have the experience that Nelson has, but I expect both of these guys to go all out and show the MFC fans the featherweights are here to stay. Winner via split decision … ‘Sugar’ Shane Nelson.”

- Bryan Levick, Radio

“This one is a coin toss. Nelson has high-level experience but Spencer is hungry and has the talent to win. I’ll go with the Canadian in this one.”

- Luke Harris, MFC middleweight

“Nelson’s coming off a submission loss back in February so he’ll be hungry for a win. Problem is, he’s facing a hungrier Graham Spencer. Spencer has not faced the level of competition that Nelson has, but his cage savvy should make up for that. Look for Spencer to submit the BJ Penn protege in the second round via choke  – a repeat of Nelson’s last loss.”

- Todd Prescott, MMA journalist

“Nelson has loads of experience. Should be interesting to see if he can bounce back from his last performance. Graham although could be a dark horse on the whole MFC 35 card. Nelson by way of split decision.”

- Adam Martin,

“The first televised 145-pound clash in promotional history pits the British Columbia native Spencer against the Hawaiian UFC veteran Nelson, a long-time training partner of all-time great B.J. Penn. Spencer has recorded wins in his last two fights, but Nelson should provide a significantly tougher test than some of his recent opposition. Despite coming off a loss to Takasuke Kume this past February in Japan, Nelson possesses the experience and Brazilian jiu-jitsu base to give Spencer all he can handle. The Canadian prospect is hardly a pushover, but he will likely succumb to Nelson’s superior submission skills. Nelson via submission, Round 1.”

- Ariel Shnerer, The Fight Network

“I see Spencer as a favorite in this bout despite Nelson’s array of experience. Nelson is a grinder and relies on his opposition to have poor conditioning in order to capitalize late in fights. Despite Nelson’s world-class training camp in Hawaii, Spencer will have a full gas tank and will be able out-strike Nelson while keeping a comfortable distance. Spencer takes the fight handily. Spencer via submission, Round 1.”

- Julien Solomita, Fighting Solo Radio

“Nelson via decision.”

- Mukai Maromo, MFC lightweight

“The featherweight fight between Graham Spencer and Shane Nelson should also not take long by way of KO or TKO with Nelson ending it on the feet swinging for the fences. Nelson has a ton of experience with rounds on ‘The Ultimate Fighter: Team Nogueira vs. Team Mir’ and also against UFC vets George Roop, Aaron Riley and Matt Wiman. He was set to fight Japanese legend Shinya Aoki in Japan in 2011 when Aoki refused to fight Nelson. He’s a dangerous fighter with too much experience for Spencer who has an unknown stand-up game. I don’t see Spencer taking Nelson down, to his strength, for the ground-and-pound win … Nelson wins by KO in the first.”

- Richard Duguay,

“Spencer will slow down the pace and bring this fight to the mat and grind out a top position unanimous decision win.”

- Keith Grienke,

“Billed as Canada’s next great featherweight, Graham Spencer will have his toughest test to date with TUF veteran Shane Nelson. Dropping down from lightweight, there is no doubt that Nelson will be the bigger fighter which will pose problems for Spencer. My prediction is that Shane Nelson will defeat Graham Spencer via decision.”

- Ryan Justason, MMA Insight Radio

“I love watching the featherweights bang it out – so much speed and continual action. I’m calling Nelson to go the distance with Spencer.”

- Erin McDougall, MMA blogger

“MFC’s featherweight division debut provides a compelling matchup in what should be an energetic bout. Spencer comes in with a superior record and hype. So go with the odds. Spencer in a second-round submission.”

- Con Griwkowsky, Sun Media

“Gotta give experience to Shane. Spencer should give him a tough fight but I gotta go with the vet by sub or KO in the second.”

- Cody Krahn, MFC welterweight

“Although Nelson’s big show run didn’t have a lot of success, the Hawaiian will have a clear experience advantage in this fight. Another big factor in this bout is that Spencer is a naturally smaller fighter. Nelson’s athleticism will be the difference as he scores a second-round TKO.”

- Rob Tatum,

“I’m very curious to see the adjustments and changes Graham Spencer has made for the fight. He’s hooked up with Team Alpha Male and working with some of the top fighters in the world down in Sacramento and I feel the changes he has made behind the scenes are going to present a completely different Graham Spencer then we have seen prior. With Nelson he’s won three of his last four after a 15-month layoff with this fight giving us an indication of where he will be slotted in the MFC featherweight mix. I’m very happy that the MFC has adopted the featherweight class and should ensure some great action fights. I’m picking Spencer to showcase a lot and take this fight.”

- John Pollock, Fight Network Radio

“Nelson over Spencer in a unanimous decision.”

- Joshua Wood,

“I’m very happy to see both Graham Spencer and Shane Nelson in the MFC. I think this fight will be a back and forth battle with both fighters having their moments but in the end I see Shane Nelson doing just a little bit more to get his hand raised. Nelson by decision.”

- Mike Radich, MMA Talkout Radio

“Spencer will be facing the biggest test of his career in UFC vet Nelson. He’ll need to avoid long striking battles with Nelson while using his clinch work and takedowns to gain positional dominance over Nelson. As long as Spencer can shake off the ring rust early he should be able to outwork Nelson en route to a unanimous decision victory with control on the mat.”

- Don Wilson,

“Nelson will earn the victory thanks to his length and experience. He will avoid the submissions and won’t allow the fight to get taken to the ground.”

- Nikolai Gionti,

Posted by MMeh Fighter
Wednesday, October 24th, 2012
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